The recovery of the global economy slowed further in 2013. The forecast for growth
in economic activity was +2.8% (vs. +3.1% in 2012 and +3.9% in 2011). This slowdown
has affected both advanced economies (+1.1% in 2013 vs. + 1.4%. in 2012) as well as
emerging and developing economies. (+4.5% in 2013 vs. + 4.9% in 2012).
Focusing the analysis on advanced economies, it is worth mentioning the
improvements seen in the European Union (zero growth in 2013), following a
contraction in the economy in 2012 (-0.4%). A major contributing factor to this
performance was the stabilisation of the Euro zone, that emerged from the
longest recession in its history, and the strong performance of other EU member
states (such as the United Kingdom, with growth of +1.3% in 2013 against that of
+0.1% in 2012. Japan is expected to report similar growth to that of 2012 (+2.1% in
2013 vs. +2.0% in 2012), whilst political uncertainty in the United States and the
implementation of fiscal consolidation measures are expected to contribute to a
reduction in the growth of GDP from +2.8% in 2012 to +1.6% in 2013.
Emerging economies also continue to slow down, as a result of the structural
challenges affecting many of the main economies in this group, such as the current
transition in China from an investment based economic model to a consumer based
model, or Russia’s dependency on raw materials. Looking at the main regions, in
2013, growth of +7.5% is expected in China, +5.0% in Sub-Saharan Africa and +2.9%
in India. Latin America (+2.6%) and Russia (+1.9%) are expecting to see growth
below the world average.